Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool44%45%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Brentford (A)2-1
- Oct 14 · at LASK (A)6-3
- Oct 11 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Crystal Palace (H)5-0
- Oct 15 · v FK Kauno Žalgiris (H)4-0
- Oct 10 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Arsenal (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Manchester United (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Liverpool form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record