Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Jul 12 · 15:00 · Liverpool vs Cerro
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Liverpool53%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Cerro23%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Jun 8 · v Cerro Largo (H)0-0
- Jun 1 · at Boston River (A)1-0
- May 24 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- May 22 · v Racing (H)0-0
- May 16 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
Cerro
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Jun 7 · v Peñarol (H)0-1
- May 29 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-2
- May 24 · v Central Español (H)1-0
- May 16 · at Boston River (A)1-4
- May 10 · at Nacional (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.