Primera Division (Uruguay) · Mon, Jun 8 · 22:00 · Liverpool vs Cerro Largo
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 44%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool44%49%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Cerro Largo30%23%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 77% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 68% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Jun 1 · at Boston River (A)1-0
- May 24 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- May 22 · v Racing (H)0-0
- May 16 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- May 15 · at Aston Villa (A)2-4
Cerro Largo
WinLossLossWinWin
- May 29 · v Cerro (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Boston River (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Racing (A)0-1
- May 11 · v Peñarol (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Atlético Progreso (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.