Premier League (England) · Sat, May 9 · 11:30 · Liverpool vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 44%
We make it 76% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 63%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool44%48%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Chelsea33%27%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 63% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 64% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- May 8 · at Wanderers (A)0-1
- May 3 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- May 2 · v Danubio (H)3-0
- Apr 25 · at Juventud (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-1
Chelsea
LossLossLossWinLoss
- May 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-0
- Apr 21 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.