Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 38%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool35%63%−28
OursMarket
Draw28%21%+7
OursMarket
Crystal Palace38%16%+21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 84% | −21 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 37% | +28 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 79% | −31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 19 · v Nacional (H)1-3
- Apr 19 · at Everton (A)2-1
- Apr 14 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-2
- Apr 13 · at Peñarol (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · v Fulham (H)2-0
Crystal Palace
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Apr 20 · v West Ham United (H)0-0
- Apr 16 · at Fiorentina (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Apr 9 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Mar 19 · at AEK Larnaca (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.