Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 16:30 · Liverpool vs Fulham
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 46%
A 31% away win. The market says 20%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool46%57%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Fulham31%20%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 80% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 43% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 74% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Manchester City (A)0-4
- Mar 31 · at Atlético Progreso (A)3-3
- Mar 24 · v Central Español (H)3-3
Fulham
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Mar 21 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Mar 15 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Southampton (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · v West Ham United (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.