Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Liverpool vs Fulham
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 69%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−2
OursMarket
Fulham13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 9 · v Atletico Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Jul 12 · v Cerro (H)1-2
Fulham
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)3-0
- Aug 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- May 24 · v Newcastle United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.