Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 8 · 16:30 · Liverpool vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool51%41%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Manchester City26%33%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 55% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinLossWinWinWin
- Feb 6 · at Albion (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Jan 28 · v Qarabağ (H)6-0
- Jan 24 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-3
- Jan 21 · at Olympique Marseille (A)3-0
Manchester City
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 4 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Feb 1 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Galatasaray (H)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.