Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:30 · Liverpool vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Manchester City38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Atletico Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-0
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Sunderland (H)5-3
- Sep 17 · v Norwich City (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at FC Porto (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.