Premier League (England) · Wed, Feb 26 · 20:15 · Liverpool vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Liverpool41%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Newcastle United35%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 23 · at Manchester City (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · v Cerro (H)2-1
- Feb 19 · at Aston Villa (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Wanderers (A)1-1
Newcastle United
LossWinWinLossWin
- Feb 23 · v Nottingham Forest (H)4-3
- Feb 15 · at Manchester City (A)0-4
- Feb 8 · at Birmingham City (A)3-2
- Feb 5 · v Arsenal (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-0 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.