Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 20:00 · Liverpool vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 48%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool48%53%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Newcastle United27%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 69% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Jan 28 · v Qarabağ (H)6-0
- Jan 24 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-3
- Jan 21 · at Olympique Marseille (A)3-0
- Jan 17 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Jan 12 · v Barnsley (H)4-1
Newcastle United
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Jan 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Aston Villa (H)0-2
- Jan 21 · v PSV (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-0
- Jan 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.