Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 66%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool66%65%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest14%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 82% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Nov 7 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-2
- Nov 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Nov 1 · v Aston Villa (H)2-0
- Nov 1 · v Juventud (H)0-1
Nottingham Forest
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Nov 9 · v Leeds United (H)3-1
- Nov 6 · at Sturm Graz (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Oct 26 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-2
- Oct 23 · v Porto (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.