Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 11:30 · Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 40%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool40%64%−25
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest35%15%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 60% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 85% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 36% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 81% | −28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 23 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Jul 12 · v Cerro (H)1-2
- Jun 8 · v Cerro Largo (H)0-0
- Jun 1 · at Boston River (A)1-0
- May 24 · v Brentford (H)1-1
Nottingham Forest
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 25 · v Leeds United (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Leeds United (H)0-1
- May 24 · v Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 24 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.