Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Apr 14 · 19:00 · Liverpool vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 53%
A 53% away win. The market says 36%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool26%41%−15
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain53%36%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 64% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 59% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 53% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossLossLossWinWin
- Apr 13 · at Peñarol (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · v Fulham (H)2-0
- Apr 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Manchester City (A)0-4
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 8 · v Liverpool (H)2-0
- Apr 3 · v Toulouse (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Mar 17 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Chelsea (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.