Primera Division (Uruguay) · Fri, May 22 · 22:30 · Liverpool vs Racing
Likeliest: Racing win · 44%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Racing44%37%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 40% | +23 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 47% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 16 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- May 15 · at Aston Villa (A)2-4
- May 9 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
- May 8 · at Wanderers (A)0-1
- May 3 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
Racing
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- May 17 · v Cerro Largo (H)1-0
- May 9 · at Central Español (A)0-2
- May 3 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at Cerro Largo (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Defensor Sporting (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Racing |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.