Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 15 · 16:30 · Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 55%
A 23% away win. The market says 11%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool55%73%−18
OursMarket
Draw22%16%+6
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur23%11%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 54% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 89% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 27% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 87% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 10 · at Galatasaray (A)0-1
- Mar 10 · at Boston River (A)1-0
- Mar 6 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)3-1
- Mar 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-0
Tottenham Hotspur
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 10 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-5
- Mar 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-3
- Mar 1 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Arsenal (H)1-4
- Feb 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.