EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 15 · 19:00 · Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Atletico Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v Everton (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Newcastle United (H)0-2
- Aug 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · at Brentford (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.