Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · Liverpool vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 67%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%−1
OursMarket
Villarreal13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Brentford (A)2-1
- Oct 14 · at LASK (A)6-3
- Oct 11 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-1
Villarreal
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Elche (H)0-0
- Oct 13 · v Napoli (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Real Madrid (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Levante UD (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Málaga (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.