Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 · Liverpool vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 60%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool60%67%−7
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
West Ham United20%14%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 86% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 33% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 83% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Feb 25 · at Independiente Medellín (A)0-0
- Feb 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- Feb 20 · at Cerro (A)1-1
- Feb 18 · v Independiente Medellín (H)1-2
- Feb 14 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-0
West Ham United
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Feb 21 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-0
- Feb 14 · at Burton Albion (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · at Chelsea (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.