Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 · Liverpool vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 67%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool67%77%−10
OursMarket
Draw20%15%+5
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers13%9%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 63% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 91% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 23% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 85% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 90% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Dec 20 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Leeds United (A)3-3
- Dec 3 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 20 · v Brentford (H)0-2
- Dec 13 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Dec 8 · v Manchester United (H)1-4
- Dec 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Liverpool form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record