Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Livingston vs Ayr United
Likeliest: Livingston win · 60%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Livingston60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Ayr United16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Livingston
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Greenock Morton (A)4-1
- Sep 4 · v Stenhousemuir (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Arbroath (A)0-1
Ayr United
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · v Stenhousemuir (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Queen's Park FC (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Partick Thistle (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Greenock Morton (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Livingston | Ayr United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.