Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Livingston vs Partick Thistle
Likeliest: Livingston win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Livingston38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Partick Thistle32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Livingston
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Ayr United (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · at Greenock Morton (A)4-1
- Sep 4 · v Stenhousemuir (H)0-1
Partick Thistle
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Arbroath (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Raith Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Ayr United (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Queen's Park FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Livingston | Partick Thistle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.