Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Ljungskile SK vs IK Brage
Likeliest: Ljungskile SK win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ljungskile SK44%48%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
IK Brage29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ljungskile SK
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Örebro (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Norrby IF (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Norrköping (A)2-2
IK Brage
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Helsingborg (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Sandvikens IF (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at Östersunds FK (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v GIF Sundsvall (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Ljungskile SK | IK Brage |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-5 | 0-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.