Primera A (Colombia) · Mon, Oct 5 · 01:15 · Llaneros FC vs América de Cali
Likeliest: América de Cali win · 44%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Llaneros FC23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
América de Cali44%44%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Llaneros FC
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)2-3
- Sep 7 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Independiente Medellín (A)1-2
América de Cali
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 24 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportes Tolima (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Llaneros FC | América de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.