Primera A (Colombia) · Wed, Oct 21 · 23:15 · Llaneros FC vs Deportivo Cali
Likeliest: Deportivo Cali win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Llaneros FC30%34%−4
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Cali36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 66% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Llaneros FC
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Once Caldas (A)0-1
- Oct 5 · v América de Cali (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-0
Deportivo Cali
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)3-1
- Sep 28 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Llaneros FC | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-3 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.