Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 23:05 · Llaneros FC vs Independiente Santa Fe
Likeliest: Independiente Santa Fe win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Llaneros FC31%35%−4
OursMarket
Draw34%30%+3
OursMarket
Independiente Santa Fe35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Llaneros FC
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Once Caldas (A)0-1
- Oct 5 · v América de Cali (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)2-3
Independiente Santa Fe
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 6 · at Independiente Medellín (A)1-0
- Sep 29 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)2-1
- Sep 23 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)4-1
- Sep 15 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Llaneros FC | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-3 | 5-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.