Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Oct 11 · 10:00 · LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka
Likeliest: LNZ Cherkasy win · 76%
We make it 44% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LNZ Cherkasy76%73%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Kudrivka8%10%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 38% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Veres Rivne (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
Kudrivka
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Veres Rivne (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)1-5
- Aug 29 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)0-3
- Aug 15 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | LNZ Cherkasy | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.