3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:00 · Lokomotiv Oslo vs Konnerud IL
Likeliest: Lokomotiv Oslo win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lokomotiv Oslo53%59%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+4
OursMarket
Konnerud IL23%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 72% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 41% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 75% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lokomotiv Oslo
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at FK Union Carl Berner (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Nordstrand (A)0-5
- Sep 13 · v Bærum SK (H)5-2
- Sep 7 · at KFUM Oslo II (A)3-0
Konnerud IL
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Heming (H)5-5
- Sep 26 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Frigg (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Grei (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Vålerenga IF II (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lokomotiv Oslo | Konnerud IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.