First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Likeliest: Lokomotiv Plovdiv win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lokomotiv Plovdiv39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+4
OursMarket
Slavia Sofia28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 40% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v CSKA Sofia (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Cherno More Varna (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)0-2
Slavia Sofia
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.