First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Likeliest: Lokomotiv Sofia win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lokomotiv Sofia50%49%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Botev Vratsa22%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lokomotiv Sofia
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-2
- Sep 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Ludogorets (H)1-2
Botev Vratsa
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.