First League (Bulgaria) · Wed, Sep 16 · 16:00 · Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Likeliest: CSKA Sofia win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lokomotiv Sofia15%18%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
CSKA Sofia61%59%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lokomotiv Sofia
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Ludogorets (H)1-2
- Aug 31 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)1-3
- Aug 8 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-3
CSKA Sofia
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Cherno More Varna (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v OFI Crete (H)0-2
- Aug 20 · at OFI Crete (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Lokomotiv Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.