First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:30 · Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Likeliest: Lokomotiv Sofia win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lokomotiv Sofia43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Lokomotiv Plovdiv27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lokomotiv Sofia
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-2
- Sep 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Ludogorets (H)1-2
- Aug 31 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v CSKA Sofia (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Cherno More Varna (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.