First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Sep 6 · 18:15 · Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets
Likeliest: Ludogorets win · 39%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lokomotiv Sofia38%17%+21
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Ludogorets39%60%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 40% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 83% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 22% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lokomotiv Sofia
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Aug 31 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)1-3
- Aug 8 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-3
- Jul 31 · at Slavia Sofia (A)1-1
- Jul 25 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-2
Ludogorets
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 30 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Slavia Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Aug 9 · at Cherno More Varna (A)3-2
- Aug 2 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lokomotiv Sofia | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.