Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Sep 4 · 18:45 · Lommel SK vs Club Brugge KV
Likeliest: Club Brugge KV win · 51%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lommel SK29%10%+18
OursMarket
Draw21%16%+5
OursMarket
Club Brugge KV51%74%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 72% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 26% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 90% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 12% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lommel SK
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 29 · at Cercle Brugge (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v KVC Westerlo (H)4-0
- Aug 16 · v RC Sporting Charleroi (H)0-1
- Aug 8 · at Sint-Truidense VV (A)1-1
- May 9 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)3-1
Club Brugge KV
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at KAA Gent (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Cercle Brugge (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Oud-Heverlee Leuven (A)3-0
- Aug 7 · v KV Kortrijk (H)3-0
- May 24 · v Gent (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Lommel SK | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.