Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:45 · Lommel SK vs KV Mechelen
Likeliest: KV Mechelen win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lommel SK33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%27%0
OursMarket
KV Mechelen40%38%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lommel SK
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v Club Brugge KV (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Cercle Brugge (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v KVC Westerlo (H)4-0
- Aug 16 · v RC Sporting Charleroi (H)0-1
KV Mechelen
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-4
- Aug 29 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · at RC Sporting Charleroi (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Standard Liège (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Lommel SK | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 0-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 29% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.