Women's Super League (England) · Sat, Sep 26 · 16:00 · London City Lionesses vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: London City Lionesses win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
London City Lionesses50%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion25%27%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
London City Lionesses
WinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at Charlton Athletic WFC (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Birmingham City W.F.C. (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Arsenal (H)0-1