Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Longford Town vs Athlone Town
Likeliest: Athlone Town win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Longford Town28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Athlone Town46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Longford Town
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at University College Dublin (A)1-1
- Oct 2 · at Wexford FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Cork City (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Treaty United FC (H)0-2
Athlone Town
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 9 · v Treaty United FC (H)1-2
- Oct 2 · v Cork City (H)2-1
- Sep 25 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Kerry FC (H)3-0
- Sep 11 · at University College Dublin (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Longford Town | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.