Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Sat, Sep 26 · 18:30 · Longford Town vs Cork City
Likeliest: Cork City win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Longford Town20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Cork City55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Longford Town
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 18 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Treaty United FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Kerry FC (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Bray Wanderers (H)4-2
Cork City
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 18 · v University College Dublin (H)5-1
- Sep 11 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Bray Wanderers (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Wexford FC (H)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Treaty United FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Longford Town | Cork City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-3 | 4-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.