Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 15 · 16:15 · Lorient vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Lorient win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 48%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient60%48%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Angers SCO17%22%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 42% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 78% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 52% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 69% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 7 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Paris (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at Rennes (A)2-0
- Jan 16 · at Monaco (A)3-1
Angers SCO
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 8 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Metz (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · at Paris (A)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-5
- Jan 10 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.