Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:15 · Lorient vs AS Monaco
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
AS Monaco49%46%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Paris FC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Le Mans (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at RC Lens (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Troyes (H)1-2
AS Monaco
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 15 · at CSKA Sofia (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Sep 18 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · at PSG (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 78% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.