Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Lorient vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Lorient win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 36%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient56%36%+20
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Le Havre21%37%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 63% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 64% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 50% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
LossWinLossDrawWin
- May 10 · at Metz (A)4-0
- May 2 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Apr 26 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
Le Havre
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- May 10 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- May 3 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v Metz (H)4-4
- Apr 18 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Nice (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.