Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 14 · 16:00 · Lorient vs Lens
Likeliest: Lens win · 39%
A 37% home win. The market says 23%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient37%23%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Lens39%51%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 77% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 31% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 8 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Nice (A)3-3
- Feb 15 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · at Brest (A)0-2
Lens
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Mar 8 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Monaco (H)2-3
- Feb 14 · at Paris (A)5-0
- Feb 7 · v Rennes (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.