Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 4 · 16:15 · Lorient vs Metz
Likeliest: Lorient win · 56%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient56%53%+4
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Metz23%21%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 51% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 54% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 79% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 47% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 71% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Dec 20 · at AS Gosier (A)7-0
- Dec 14 · at Strasbourg (A)0-0
- Dec 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · at Nantes (A)1-1
Metz
LossLossLossLossWin
- Dec 20 · at Biesheim (A)3-0
- Dec 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Dec 7 · at Auxerre (A)1-3
- Nov 28 · v Rennes (H)0-1
- Nov 23 · at Brest (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.