Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 30 · 16:15 · Lorient vs Nice
Likeliest: Lorient win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 39%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient49%39%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Nice26%33%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 61% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 54% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Nov 23 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Nov 9 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Lens (A)0-3
- Oct 29 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-1
- Oct 26 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
Nice
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 27 · at Porto (A)0-3
- Nov 21 · v Olympique Marseille (H)1-5
- Nov 9 · at Metz (A)1-2
- Nov 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Nov 1 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.