Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 7 · 19:45 · Lorient vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Lorient win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 29%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient40%29%+11
OursMarket
Draw27%27%−1
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais33%43%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 71% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 41% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Nov 30 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Nov 9 · v Toulouse (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Lens (A)0-3
- Oct 29 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-1
Olympique Lyonnais
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Nov 30 · v Nantes (H)3-0
- Nov 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)6-0
- Nov 23 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Nov 9 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Nov 6 · at Real Betis (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.