Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 18 · 15:00 · Lorient vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 41%
A 38% home win. The market says 21%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient38%21%+17
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille41%56%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 58% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 57% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 79% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 27% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Apr 12 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Lens (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
Olympique Marseille
WinWinLossLossWin
- Apr 10 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Monaco (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.