Coupe de France (France) · Wed, Feb 4 · 19:30 · Lorient vs Paris
Likeliest: Lorient win · 54%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient54%41%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Paris24%30%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 59% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 58% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at Rennes (A)2-0
- Jan 16 · at Monaco (A)3-1
- Jan 10 · at Hauts Lyonnais (A)3-1
- Jan 4 · v Metz (H)1-1
Paris
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 31 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Angers SCO (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Nantes (A)2-1
- Jan 12 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.