Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 26 · 13:00 · Lorient vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 26%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient36%48%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Strasbourg40%26%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 74% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 52% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 65% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 18 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Lens (H)2-1
Strasbourg
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 22 · v Nice (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Apr 16 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Apr 9 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Apr 4 · v Nice (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.