Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:45 · Lorient vs Troyes
Likeliest: Lorient win · 41%
A 34% away win. The market says 22%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lorient41%52%−11
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Troyes34%22%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 47% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 78% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 71% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lorient
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Aug 22 · at Nice (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Le Havre (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Metz (A)4-0
- May 2 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Apr 26 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
Troyes
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 22 · v Paris FC (H)0-0
- May 9 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Laval (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Saint-Étienne (A)3-0
- Apr 18 · v Boulogne (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Lorient | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.