Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 02:30 · Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC
Likeliest: Los Angeles FC win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Los Angeles FC63%66%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Austin FC15%14%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 34% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Los Angeles FC
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at FC Dallas (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)1-3
- Sep 10 · v New York Red Bulls (H)2-0
Austin FC
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Nashville SC (H)1-4
- Sep 27 · v San Diego FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at FC Dallas (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Colorado Rapids (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Los Angeles FC | Austin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.